ANALYSES AND COMMENTARIES

Diego Bolchini, Terrorismo: quale modellazione del rischio? Alcune riflessioni preliminari

Il testo prende spunto da una pubblicazione realizzata nel 2015 dal CoE-DAT (Center of Excellence- Defence Against Terrorism) della NATO, riguardante possibili profili di modella­zione del rischio terroristico nello scenario contemporaneo. All’analisi testuale del Paper ven­gono associate alcune riflessioni, originanti dalla corrente letteratura esistente sul fenomeno terroristico e da casi empirici di studio tratti dalla cronaca recente. In conclusione, l’indirizzo programmatico auspicato è che tanto le scienze sociali di tipo “soft” quanto le scienze “dure” possano concorrere sempre maggiormente ed in modo integrato per la clinical recognition, change detection, diagnosi e possibile prognosi e contrasto del fenomeno terroristico inteso quale modalità di combattimento.

Key-Words:

Terrorism; Risk Modeling; Anthropology; Asymmetric Warfare

Marco Maiolino, An emerging and crucial change in the international security and defense community. Bringing the Socio-Cultural Perspective Back into the Intelligence Analytical Approach

According to the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) publication Global Trends 20301, the current and future world is and will be shaped by a number of influential factors:
– Individual empowerment is rising, thanks to the reduction of poverty, growing middle-class¬es, level of education, discovery and use of new technologies and improving sanitation.
– The patterns of global power will change, we are already observing an ongoing power tran-sition from a hegemonic to a multipolar world, where states are and will not be the sole power brokers, other actors will step up on the international stage.
– Demography will demonstrate to be crucial, growing against ageing populations, statistics foresee a 60% of the global population living in urban areas by 2030 and migrations will stabilise as a constant and growing phenomenon.
– Moreover, the climate change and resources scarcity is and will be another difficult chal¬lenge to global governance.
All those trends will be integrated by other vectors of change such as economic instability, efficiency of global governance, development and use of new technologies, regional instability and conflicts creation and resolution.
Now, taking into account the totality of those factors, the trajectory of a common upward sloping aggregate curve may be drown, insecurity will increase and, even more importantly, it will be com-posed by a basket of new and different threats.
These new trends and menaces will need to be detected, understood, prevented and ultimately engaged, and obviously old knowledge, tools and strategies will never fit the feat.
We live within a liquid reality, featured by the concept of constant evolution, hence, the security and defense cadre will have to bear the tough effort to adapt to new and complex environments, a pretty difficult task.
Within this framework the concept and meaning of conflict is changed as well. Warfare may no longer be intended as a pure matter of states, brought about by the physical engagement of official and opposing armies. Since the end of World War Two, the international Law of Armed Conflict
already started to regulate a new set of actors: insurgents, national liberation movements, lawful and unlawful combatants. However, the transformation is much wider, this is the era of Hybrid Warfare . This paper will present Human Dynamics and, more precisely, Sociocultural Intelligence (SO- CINT) as innovative and useful tools to face the new conflict scenario.
The need to deeply understand the field of operation, but more broadly the international environ¬ment with its different social and cultural contexts, political and legal features, economic conditions, groups composition and influence, is key, for the intelligence and the wider security and defense community. Not only to bring about successful operations in territories where military forces are engaged. The even greater advantage would be determined by the possibility to understand, control and dissolve threats before they turn into crisis.
This preventive effect, shows clearly how social sciences and the socio-cultural perspective must be applied not only to the military domain, rather, it is best suited for the most comprehensive intelli¬gence spectrum .
Following the guiding principles expressed above, this paper is going to explore the re-employment of Human Dynamics as a source of revolution for the international Intelligence Community and its methodological and analytical angle. The work will be developed starting from the intelligence history underlining the past role and space of employment of social sciences, the subsequent step will regard the description of socio-cultural intelligence as a discipline, what it is (scientific background), how it works (methodology), and why it is important. Furthermore, the main international examples of socio-cultural Intelligence application will be provided.
Concluding, socio-cultural Intelligence material application will be discussed.

Key-Words:

Intelligence, human dynamics, counter-terrorism

Mauro Pastorello & Marianna Testa, Intelligence failures: between theories and case studies

The main objective of this paper is to understand why the Intelligence Community at time fails, taking in account several major intelligence failures starting from the most shocking one in the twentieth century – the 9/11 terrorist attack – to the most recent – France and Belgium multiple attacks.
Intelligence failures are not easy to study because there is not accepted single theory that ex¬plains why the intelligence community fails. This field of interest, which has his roots in the Pearl Harbor surprise attack, has always attracted interest. This interest is due because of the importance of the Intelligence Community role in the security field. The most studied intel¬ligence failure episode was the attack on Pearl Harbor, but a major interest arose when one of the most shocking, for the western world, surprise attack took place within the United States. The 9/11 terrorist attacks. What went wrong? Although surprise attacks are not the only types of intelligence failures, we will focus on them because of the sadly recent events.

This paper is structured as follow:

Paragraph 1. Takes in account the different definitions of the word “intelligence” which can be an organization, information, a process, a product. To better understand the intelligence failures we decided that the best definitions to rely on are intelligence as information and as a process. Intelligence as information is defined as a tangible product to collected and analyz­ed; and intelligence as a process (the intelligence cycle) is composed of five important steps, which are: requirements, collection, analysis, production and dissemination.

Paragraph 2. The aim of this paragraph is to explore the different theories of the intelligence failures and try to understand which one can be applied for our case studies. The traditional school believes that the problem of the intelligence failure lies in faulty analysis of the avail­able information: the failures lies in the analysis stage. While for the contrarian school the problem rises in the collection stage: intelligence officials need to rely more on the use of the intelligence means (HUMNIT, TECHINT, SIGINT, IMINT) for a better information collection. The reformist school does not recognize the problem in the intelligence cycle but in the organizational structure of the intelligence agencies. Complex structures, hierarchies, specialization can limit the sharing of important information: the dots are not connected.

Paragraph 3. The third paragraph regards the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Is worth saying that intelli­gence as “information” matches perfectly for this specific case: the information regarding the attacks were present but the organizational structure of the American intelligence community failed to connect the dots. We can easily say that US intelligence community failed to prevent the 9/11 terrorist attacks because the American intelligence agencies did not share information due to their complex organizational structure. For the different nature, protocols, cultures, internal problems, and interest the FBI and CIA did not share several important information. Paragraph 4. After analyzing the different theories and the first case study we agree in recogniz­ing that the problem of the intelligence agencies in non- sharing information is due because of their organizational structure (of course, this is not valid for all the intelligence failure events as the intelligence can fail for other reasons also). This last paragraph simply describes and analyzes two tragic events that took place in Europe between 2015 and 2016: the Paris attacks and Brussels attacks. Just like the 9/11 case study we agree in addressing the failure of the in­telligence community of both countries in not sharing information.

Key-words

Intelligence, Intelligence failure, Intelligence bias, Intelligence Community, Intelligence the­ories, Intelligence schools, terrorist attack.

Urszula Soler & Marek Górra, Populism as an element of security policy. The 2016 Polish Anti-terrorism Law – a case study

The European Union is facing the trouble which the US, after 9/11, had to deal with. How much safety are we ready to sacrifice for freedom and how many privileges and civil liberties can we give away for common safety, and finally: when is enough, enough? Europe is not as lavish with freedom slogans as the US, but we can assume that Europe is going to put an end to limiting civil liberties faster than Americans are. Reaction to terrorist attacks might be „a way towards populism”. Populism is especially visible during turning points or times of politi­cal crisis. Often the reaction of the state is inadequate to a terrorist attack. Almost every act of terrorism results in a strong reaction from the state. Usually, the first decision made is a halt in current law and order. Special rules and regulations become more significant.

The article suggests that both authoritarianism and populism are part and parcel of political culture and they appear in the face of national danger. What is more, it is not clear which actions and repression used by the authorities could be considered anti-terrorism tactics, and which mere populist and authoritarian actions. This article analyzes whether there is a relation between democracy and terrorism. In other words, greater fear of the unknown results in an increase of authoritarian feeling and leads to looking for controversial and sometimes radical, solutions. Apparently, the more democratic a country, the more dissatisfied a society is, which contributes to lesser understanding of the complexity of the process and to making judgments as well.

This paper analyze the Anti-terrorism Law, passed by the Polish Parliament in June, 2016. The said regulation is a way of a showing the authorities’ will to manifest their consistent and uncompromising attitude towards threats. The Law intends to introduce: purchase of pre-paid cell phones only on presentation of an ID; holding in custody for 14 days those suspected of terrorism and also carrying out house searches at all times. However, some parts of this regula­tion seem to be colliding with the idea of a democratic state in which freedom is the superior value. The conflict, which has been caused while passing this Law, addresses two issues. The first one is a traditional conflict of values between security and liberty. The second one is a manifestation of a populist, and perhaps naive, belief that strict law will be an effective weapon against terrorism.

It is very difficult to eradicate populism. It is going to be present one way or the other in the public sphere. What is more, populism is so flexible that it can adjust to any doctrine and political conditions. It is worth to verify if do modern, democratic citizens of Europe need populist governments? The answer to this question lies in social behaviors, especially during election campaigns in which politicians present their fresh and pragmatic look. The remedy for populist slogans is knowledge; it is also an effective tool in understanding the complex socio-political events.

Key-Words

Counterterrorism, security, surveillance, Patriot Act, Freedom Act, freedom, privacy

Marek Górra & Urszula Soler, Public sentiment after the terrorist attacks and their impact on the attitudes on Polish people

Terrorism occurs in all parts of the world although most incidents occur in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. Terror is first of all the terror of the next attack. Killing dozens or hun­dreds people is not the ultimate goal of terrorism. These events achieve a broader goal of cre­ating division, fear, and escalating racist and xenophobic trends. Populist, far-right groups may well fuel more hatred. What if terrorism contributes to political and social disruption, which in turn leads to even more grievances that inspire further campaigns of political violence? From Denmark to the Netherlands to Poland, a new wave of rightwing parties has emerged over the past decade-and-a-half, and they are casting a much wider net than Jean-Marie Le Pen ever at­tempted to. And by deftly appealing to fear, nostalgia and resentment of elites, they are rapidly broadening their base. Such organisations, just like other populist and anti-immigrant parties gaining support in the polls across Europe, have been quick to make political capital from the attacks, citing them as proof that all their fears about Islamism were true.
The aim of the thesis is to discuss recent acts of terrorism in Europe in 2015-2016 and their influence on both the social attitude and the political decisions of the ruling elites in Europe. Therefore, the thesis is trying to answer the question whether the rise of a terrorist threat entails an increased support for radical, populist and nationalist movements in Poland.
The questions asked to the two groups of people representing two opposing social groups, were quite a challenge. Both groups, despite being different from each other, take part in an ongoing public discussion about what could be done to limit the terrorists threat. The threat of terrorism in Poland is more serious now than in the previous years. It is worth examining how society perceives the problem of terrorism and whether the anxiety connected with it could have any impact on the shape of the political scene. Statistical data show that the sense of terrorist threat in society has been politicised and the differences between particular political circles run along the ideological divisions.
An important field of research, picturing social attitudes is an analysis of the society in the perspective of sociodemographic divisions.

Having to verify some correlations between terroristic attacks and an increase in the hostility towards refugees, it is worth confronting those tragic events with the data illustrating the cur­rent attitudes in society.

Key-Words

Terrorism, Escalation, Radicalization, Populism, Poland

FOCUS: FOREIGN FIGHTERS

Claudio Bertolotti, Intelligence e definizione della minaccia. Dal terrorismo convenzionale al “Nuovo Terrorismo Insurrezionale” di matrice islamica: Foreign Fighter e “lupi solitari come fattore di destabilizzazione interna agli Stati.

Gli attentati in Europa e in Turchia del 2015 e 2016 confermato un’efficiente capacità oper¬ativa e di coordinamento da parte del “fenomeno Stato islamico” (IS), evoluzione della realtà proto-statale dello Stato islamico da cui deriva.
Un’evoluzione che, se da un lato, si è sviluppata seguendo un approccio che possiamo definire aziendale attraverso le fasi di marketing, premium-branding, franchising e outsourcing, dall’al¬tra, ha portato all’adozione, sviluppo e adattamento di tecniche offensive in quello che possi¬amo definire “teatro operativo urbano europeo”, in primis le tecniche dei commando suicidi e dei “team-raid” tattici.
Al tempo stesso il “fenomeno Stato islamico” ha aumentato la sua capacità offensiva poten¬ziale con il rientro dei foreign fighters a cui si uniscono i soggetti operativi di prossimità, i “lupi solitari” all’interno dei propri stati, le donne, operative ma anche mogli e madri dei combattenti, e i bambini-soldato – i c.d. “leoncini” – impiegati anche come attaccanti suicidi. Manca però una definizione condivisa del nuovo modello di terrorismo e delle sue caratter¬istiche. Una mancanza che può pregiudicare il successo di una strategia di contrasto poiché priva di un comune e condiviso parametro di valutazione gli organi di intelligence, la polizia giudiziaria e l’attività di analisi della minaccia.
Nello specifico, si propone un nuovo approccio metodologico finalizzato alla definizione, let¬tura, e analisi del fenomeno stesso a partire dalla natura che è specifica di un terrorismo fluido, dinamico e multidimensionale: il “Nuovo Terrorismo Insurrezionale”.

Key-Words

Commando suicida, Foreign Fighter, intelligence, Isis, Nuovo Terrorismo Insurrezionale, Sta¬to islamico, Terrorismo.

Deborah Basileo, From ‘foreign fighters’ to ‘foreign terrorist fighters’: the evolution of terrorism

Sono più di 30.000 i foreign terrorist fighters che si stima abbiano raggiunto le fila dell’ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria). Nonostante il fenomeno dei foreign fighters non sia nuovo, la sua inaspettata ampiezza e la sua repentina evoluzione, hanno colto impreparata l’intera comunità intemazionale. L’aumento della radicalizzazione tramite internet e i social media, la carenza di un efficace controllo alle frontiere e il cosiddetto ‘blowback effect’ hanno por­tato il Consiglio di Sicurezza delle Nazioni Unite a rispondere in maniera mirata al fenome­no dei combattenti stranieri con la Risoluzione 2178(2014). Sovvertendo completamente la definizione data da studiosi ed esperti in materia di antiterrorismo, il Consiglio di Sicurezza ha identificato come foreign fighters qualunque individuo che esca dal territorio di residen­za o domicilio con lo scopo di partecipare, pianificare, preparare un atto terroristico, ed ha invitato tutti gli Stati Membri a modificare il proprio ordinamento affinché tutti coloro che corrispondano a tal profilo vengano perseguiti adeguatamente. Questo articolo si pone come scopo principale l’analisi dei fattori che hanno portato il Consiglio di Sicurezza a considerare i foreign fighters come terroristi cercando di individuare possibili conseguenze e risultati.

Key-Words

Foreign fighters, foreign terrorist fighters, ISIS, terrorism, UN Security Council, Resolution 2178(2014), combattenti stranieri, Consiglio di Sicurezza, terrorismo intemazionale, Stato Islamico, Risoluzione 2178(2014), Comunità Internazionale.

Sergio Salazar Villamarin, The Islamic State and terrorism: inner working of ISIL related to the role of foreign fighters

The Islamic State (IS) is one of the most deadly terrorist organizations completely different to the many ones existing nowadays. Its difference relies on the idea of achieving a world­wide “Caliphate”, meaning an organized self-productive institution ruled by Shar’ia Law as its political and religious code to govern, looking towards to be considered as a structured state. However, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of Foreign Fighters, which has developed into one of its most important elements in order to spread a new wave of terrorist attacks around the world.
The main idea of the article is an attempt to answer a particular question: by the analysis of the profile of Foreign Fighters and the modus operandi of the attacks, Does IS performs its terrorist attacks as organized cells, as self independent lone-wolfs or by the new procedure known as zombies supervised by a Command Control Body? Or the Islamic State’s propaganda is the only trigger needed to perform such violent outbreaks anywhere, at any time?

Key-words

Islamic State, Foreign Fighters, Radicalization, Europe’s terrorist Attacks, IS Recruitment, IS Modus Operandi

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RESEARCH ARTICLES

Alessandro Boncio, Italian Foreign Terrorist Fighters: a quantitative analysis of radicalization risk factors

The Italian jihadist scene with its fluid profile and features has been analyzed in different occa-sions by academics and experts. Their publications however, were conducted with a qualitative approach and, apart from some real cases description and analysis, there is a vacuum in the quantitative research that needs to be filled. This short paper is aimed at statistically analyzing data coming from some possible risk factors of violent jihadist radicalization proposed by the prevailing academic literature; the aim is to fill the abovementioned void in the research and promote a more thorough analysis to verify whether there are common denominators that can alert social workers and/or security services about individuals on the path of violent radicaliza- tion. The research is limited in sheer numbers and is related only to foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) involved in the Syrian – Iraqi conflict. The data were collected by the author regarding individuals listed by the Italian government in the FTF national record, with information collected through open sources. The principal goal of this paper is to verify the subsistence of shared radicalization risk factors in the Italian FTFs milieu, highlighting the possible trajec¬tories exploited by jihadist recruiters and propagandists. However, it is necessary to highlight the fact that this work is only a theoretical hypothesis, which necessarily has to be validated by other studies with a broader analysis sample. Furthermore, validation results should not be tak¬en literally, being clear that a theoretical model remains disconnected from real case scenarios with their unique psychological, personal and societal dynamics.

Key-Words:
Terrorism, Foreign Fighters, Italy, Radicalization

Eleonora Ardemagni, Framing AQAP’s intra-jihadi hegemony in Yemen: shifting patterns of governance and the importance of being local

This article addresses the issue of jihadism in Yemen, framing jihadi networks’ territorial penetra-tion whether in the context of the ongoing Yemeni multilayered conflict, as in the chronic failure of Yemen’s state-building from the unification so far. Due to a gradual convergence in operation¬al areas and targets, the research article contends the occurrence of a rising intra-jihadi rivalry on Yemen’s soil between al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has deep tribal ties with some Yemeni tribes, and emerging cells of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS). Three factors that disempower IS’s mobilization capabilities are identified here, building the evidence of AQAP’S intra-jihadi hegemony in Yemen. Firstly, AQAP was able to establish proto-emirates in the Abyan region (Jaar and Zinjibar provinces) in 2011, before the experience of the “Caliphate” between Syria and Iraq: that was a vanguard experiment in terms of identity, territoriality and language. Secondly, AQAP and its affiliates, as Ansar al-Shari’a, rely on a tribal wire of linkages and informal economy ties with local population, flourished in remote provinces out of state con¬trol. Thirdly, AQAP has elaborated jihadist narratives able to interact effectively with the Yemeni context, so rallying consensus (direct or tacit) among indigenous southern populations, where the shaykh plays a more prominent role if compared with the imam. To highlight similarities and differences within the jihadi galaxy, the article offers a comparison, in the first section, between AQAP and IS in Yemen, according to genealogy, structure of the organizations, targets and geog-raphy, narratives. In the second section, the article introduces a focus on AQAP’S shifting pattern of governance in the south of Yemen, where it has established fiefdoms and attracts recruits leveraging on tribal/regional discontent vis-à-vis the Sana’a-based system of power. As a matter of fact, the Abyan proto-emirates (2011-12) embodied a sharia-oriented approach: the implementa¬tion of Islamic law was prioritized in the relationship with local communities, since the aim was to win popular support through top-down measures predominantly based on coercion. On the contrary, the Mukalla’s mini-state in Hadhramaut (2015-16), founded on fuel smuggling, showed the adaptable, community-first face of jihadism: such a scheme is more difficult to counter for central authorities than the former because able to win local communities’ consensus through the interaction with local leaders, organized welfare and locally-tailored propaganda. It is not by chance that AQAP decided to rebrand itself in Mukalla as “Sons of Hadhramaut”. AQAP’S shift¬ing pattern of governance is going to enhance the resilience of jihadism in many Yemeni areas out of state’s control, especially in coastal southern regions. Moreover, as the last section of the es¬say analyzes, the widespread discontent of southern tribes about interim president Hadi’s federal reform (which was designed and approved by an appointed and not elected committee in 2014, but not implemented yet), could furtherly empower jihadists, given the historical mistrust and rivalries among populations that will be called to share resources and authority if the draft will enter into force (for instance, Abyan and Lahj, Hadhramaut and al-Mahra). Notwithstanding a Yemeni-focused lens of investigation, this article takes into account the current Middle Eastern scenario and its domestic implications (i.e. the geopolitical competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran), as the necessity to include Yemen’s instability into the broaden Gulf of Aden’s regional security complex, in order to analyze dynamics and sources of insecurity.

Key-words
Yemen; al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula; jihadism; security; tribes; Mukalla

Diego Bolchini, Le mille e una Libia del passato calate nella realtà del presente: quale direzione?

Il cubo di Rubik è un oggetto creato dal professore di architettura ungherese Ernó’ Rubik nel 1974. Pensato originariamente a scopo di studio tra matematici ungheresi, il cubo di Rubik presenta nella sua versione standard 9 quadrati su ognuna delle sue 6 facce, per un totale di 54 quadrati. Come per il cubo ungherese esistono diverse possibili strategie risolutive (es. per-mutazione spigoli, permutazione angoli), cosi anche per il dossier libico la Comunità Inter-nazionale sta cercando soluzioni che consentano di mettere a sistema un puzzle caratterizzato da un complesso paesaggio politico-tribale rispetto al quale è oltremodo difficile decifrare e ordinare i cromatismi esistenti.

Key-Words
Libia; Anthropology; Strategy; Asymmetric Warfare; Terrorism

 

ANALYSES AND COMMENTARIES

 

Laris Gaiser, Pietro Schioppetto, Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Italian Case

Key-Words

SWF, geofinance, economic intelligence, public intervention

Nicolò Giuseppe Spagna, Understanding the threat to the European cities

After the terrorist attacks in Paris, Bruxelles and Nice claimed by Islamic State (ISIS) the question that has been raised is if ISIS could use nuclear or radiological weapons in addition to firearms and suicide explosions. This paper has the goal of clarifying the threat’s scenario, an¬swering to the following question: Is there a concrete threat about the use of nuclear or radiolog¬ical weapons in Europe by ISIS? In order to this, the first part explains the strong political and divine motivation of attacking the apostates and the evidences in the interest of using CBRN weapons. Lastly, were described the different more likely smuggling routes and the states im¬plicated in the trafficking which a terrorist organization could use for acquiring the materials. The last part concerns the threat assessment. It has been described the two main facilitators of the nuclear and radiological attack by terrorists, in other words the jihadist infiltration in the Balkan and the link between terrorists and criminal groups. The conclusion is that the concrete threat concerns the use of the RDD (radiological dispersal device) in a hypothetical attack against European city, however for logistical and technical reasons it is very unlikely the use of a nuclear device for generating an atomic blast.

Key-Words
Terrorism, NBCR, Nuclear, Radiological

Carla Castelli, Francesco Marone, Protezione civile e rischio terrorismo: quale coinvolgimento?

Negli ultimi anni la minaccia del terrorismo, specialmente di matrice jihadista, si è fatta pressante anche in Europa. Sotto questo profilo, nemmeno l’Italia può considerarsi un paese “a rischio zero” e deve quindi predisporre misure adeguate per fronteggiare la minaccia. Questo fatto stimola una riflessione sul ruolo che il sistema di Protezione civile (PC) potrebbe assumere di fronte al rischio terrorismo. È del tutto evidente che la PC non è chiamata a operare in prima linea. Anche all’interno del sistema di sicurezza civile italiano, disastri antropici come il terrorismo e il rilascio intenzionale di agenti nucleari, biologici, chimici e radiologici (NBCR) ricadono innanzitutto sotto la compe¬tenza della Difesa civile. Nondimeno anche la PC, forte delle sue capacità e delle esperienze ma¬turate sul campo, potrebbe offrire un contributo rilevante in caso di attacchi terroristici, per quanto sempre entro i limiti dei suoi compiti e delle sue competenze. Rimane da definire in che cosa possa consistere effettivamente tale contributo nel contesto attuale. Di fronte a una questione che non ha ancora ricevuto una risposta univoca, appare utile avanzare alcune considerazioni preliminari. Innanzitutto, è chiaro che eventi gravi come quelli di tipo terroristico devono essere gestiti dalle istituzioni ai massimi livelli di competenza, per evitare problemi di coordinamento e trarre il massimo beneficio dalle risorse e capacità disponibili. In questo contesto, l’intervento della PC deve essere richiesto dalle autorità competenti e non può che seguire le direttive da queste impartite, proprio per assicurare il massimo livello di coordinamento e sinergia.

Il ruolo della Protezione Civile potrebbe collocarsi prevalentemente nelle fasi della gestione del post-emergenza e, se possibile, della prevenzione. A seconda delle circostanze, la PC potrebbe essere coinvolta per svolgere una gamma di compiti specifici, come il salvataggio, lo sgombero e l’assistenza degli scampati dall’evento; il presidio degli spazi e il diradamento e sfollamento dei presenti; l’assistenza di supporto alle forze in prima linea; l’aiuto alla messa in sicurezza di edifici danneggiati. Di particolare interesse potrebbe essere la partecipazione attiva al processo di co-municazione dell’emergenza, grazie alla presenza capillare sul territorio che la PC può vantare. Queste attività di intervento presentano elementi diversi da quelli che caratterizzano l’operato tradizionale della PC e per questa ragione richiedono una formazione adeguata e mirata.
In conclusione, appare evidente che il tema del coinvolgimento della PC nell’ambito di disastri causati da attacchi terroristici merita attenzione, specialmente nella presente fase storica.

Key-words
Terrorismo; Protezione civile; gestione della crisi; comunicazione del rischio; formazione; Italia

FOCUS: GRANDI EVENTI

Giovanni Pisapia, Major Sport Events Safety and Security Framework’s Core Elements

Hosting a major sport event such as the FIFA World Cup, the Olympic and Paralympic Games or the Commonwealth Games, is a unique challenge and opportunity for any host city due to the sheer scale and complexity of a multiday, multi-sport mega event with a large number of client groups. Athletes, team officials, media, VIPs and spectators all have specific and de¬manding expectations, with distinctive desires and requirements. In addition, local residents and businesses’ requirements have to be attended too, with the aim of ensuring host cities continue to function properly during the event for all its citizens and visitors.
It is clear that each host city, in conjunction with relevant law enforcement agencies, has a daunting task to assess risks, set-up a comprehensive strategy, define an efficient organizational structure, and identify, source and make available resources to support the planning and the delivery of an effective safety and security operation during a major sport events.
The aim of this article is to detail the main elements, and their inherently interdependencies, of a sensible safety and security framework for major sport events, which identifies the strategic path to achieve a successful, well-managed and resilient event. The article also provides some insights on the most relevant lessons stemming from the practical experience of planning com¬plex safety and security projects. Clearly, each event is different because of its specific idiosyn¬crasies related to the local legal system, roles and responsibilities, government set-up and the socio, political and economic characteristics. However, the proposed framework, which would need to be tailor-maid in line with the specific local characteristics, is an effective blueprint for planning major events through a single set of documentations (e.g. risk assessment, strat¬egy, concept of operations) which cuts across different partners and directs the work of many role-players, assisting with the drafting of integrated operational plans. Such set up provides the necessary controls and reassurances locally, nationally and internationally, about the ability to deal effectively with public safety-related risks and to host a successful and peaceful event.

Key-Words
Safety and security, major sport events, risk assessment and management, security operations.

Executive Summary

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RESEARCH ARTICLES

Giorgia Gentili, The debate around the evolution of Boko Haram’s connections to al Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb

One of the characteristics of Saharan-Sahelian jihadism is its factionalism and the groups operating in the region establish frequently shifting relations of cooperation or competition making it difficult to understand alignments, alliances and rivalries. This paper tries to shed some light on the matter illustrating the different positions and arguments on the debate around the Boko Haram2-al Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb connection and its evolution. It covers the period of time that goes from the emergence of the Nigerian terrorist group in 2009 to its declaration of an Islamic caliphate in northern Nigeria in August 2014 and the establishment of the first contacts with the Islamic State that led to its official allegiance with the Iraqi/Syrian group in March 2015.

During the course of the years, there has been much speculation about Boko Haram’s links to the al Qa’ida network, in particular to its North African branch, al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb. Although the majority of the analysts, institutes of research and think-tanks agree on the existence of such a connection, different opinions persist on the time this link was established, its strength and its nature. This is due to the scarcity and the limited reliability of the available information, and also to the interests of the subjects.
The paper will illustrate the positions of different relevant subjects at the beginning of Boko Haram insurgence and their evolution during the course of the years, in conjunction with the evolution of the terrorist group and the main events that have influenced the conflict between the group and the armed forces of Nigeria and its neighbouring countries.
Between its emergence in 2009 and its allegiance to the Islamic State on 13 March 2015 and its consequent change of name in Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyyah, Boko Haram together with its splinter group Ansaru3 have killed more than 13.0004 people, making it the deadliest terrorist group in 20145. One of the elements that is believed to have contributed to the strengthening of the group is its connection to al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). This paper presents the different positions expressed by the main international institutes of research, think-tanks and analysts about the existence of links between Boko Haram and its splinter group Ansaru and AQIM. An extensive research in open sources resulted in finding that the majority of them agree that a relation between AQIM and Boko Haram existed and that its nature mainly involved the training of fighters, the exchange of weapons and funding. However, some differences emerged among the positions of the various subjects, for example, some distinguish between Boko Haram and Ansaru and affirm that only the latter has links to AQIM. Finally, some others express a more cautious stance or remain sceptical about the existence of such ties.

Keywords

Boko Haram, AQIM, al-Qaeda, links, connection, ties

Barbara Lucini, Security, resilience and migration:  a sociological analysis. Lessons learned from the Federal Republic of Germany

This paper analyses the effects and the social impacts of the current migration waves in Europe, with a specific focus on the German situation and the relations between Pegida movement – Patriotische Europäer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes and AfD – Alternative fuer Deutschland – political party.
Specifically, this piece of writing is the first to take a systematic approach from a sociological perspective to investigate what happened in Germany in the last few crucial month, where specific evidence of the role of the sociological framework have been demonstrated.
The aim of this analysis is the legitimateness of the the importance of social resilience at both methodological and operative levels, considering the interdependences that this concept has with the more general sociological framework and the migration issues.
The paper ends with an insight of the future of the migrants policies in Germany and the definition of the two sociological categories “resilience in transition and temporary resilience”.
In questi ultimi decenni, l’Europa sta affrontando una crisi umanitaria senza precedenti, testimoniata dalla sempre più visibile ondata migratoria e la pressione esistente ai confini degli Stati membri dell’Unione europea.
Una situazione cronica di caos si è andata sempre più delineando, in considerazione delle vulnerabilità di governance delle istituzioni attuali e dell’inefficacia delle politiche europee e internazionali rivolte alla possibile risoluzione dei conflitti in Medio oriente, delle politiche sulla sicurezza e alla lotta al terrorismo, delle politiche migratorie per la regolazione dell’accoglienza e dei flussi in ingresso.
Fino ad oggi il panorama è stato caratterizzato da una collezione di dati ed informazioni, che provenivano essenzialmente da fonti statistiche o giornalistiche: alcuni psicologi o attivisti sostenitori dei diritti umani hanno focalizzato l’attenzione sulle modalità di risposta resiliente da parte dei migranti, ma poco è stato analizzato in termini di una più generale resilienza istituzionale e sociale, che si concentri su un versante ovvero le modalità di risposta e gestione della situazione da parte delle comunità ospitanti e delle autorità locali.
Questa analisi avrà quindi come elemento cardine il ruolo della resilienza in Germania, uno dei Paesi europei dove le recenti ondate migratorie sembrano avere messo in crisi l’intero sistema sociale.
In particolare, la resilienza non verrà considerata unicamente nelle sue accezioni più positive, ma considerando anche finalità negative e distruttive quando per esempio il concetto viene utilizzato in funzione di aggregazione e polarizzazione estremiste, come per esempio lo sviluppo di partiti di estrema destra come AfD o NPD e movimenti politici come Pegida.
Nello specifico, alcune situazioni verranno considerate per le loro similarità: i fatti occorsi in Germania durante la vigilia di Capodanno a Colonia e in altre cittadine dove si sono verificati atti simili; l’attuale situazione migratoria e le conseguenze della crisi umanitaria in Germania; l’avanzare del partito AfD Alternative für Deutschland e del movimento di estrema destra Pegida – Patriotische Europäer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes.
Questo studio è quindi finalizzato alla presentazione e legittimazione della sociologia dei movimenti collettivi e di un più generale approccio sociologico, come lente interpretativa di fenomeni sociali, che per la loro complessità e interdipendenze stanno sfuggendo ad una efficace gestione e governance da parte delle istituzioni sia nazionali sia europee, non dimenticando il valore aggiunto espresso dalla relazione con i più ampi concetti di resilience in transition and temporary resilience considerati come drivers teorici e operativi, per una efficace e possibile gestione del fenomeno migratorio.

Keywords

Security, resilience, migration, sociology, social movements

ANALYSES AND COMMENTARIES

Alessandro Burato, SOCial Media INTelligence: l’impiego per l’ordine e la sicurezza pubblica

Topics such as public security and intelligence are talked about almost everybody and are daily present on newspapers columns. The activities of secret services, always working on the evaluation of threat levels, are nowadays an highly interesting topic too as the international scenario is getting more complex because of issues such as terrorism and radicalization processes.
The attempt to use new tools to support public security activities has been analysed from different perspectives in order to give a solid base to the Digital Humint. From one side, the research intends to give an overview about the security and insecurity perception, introducing trust as a measuring factor, bringing in some of the theories and tools related to public security management.
However, it is likewise necessary to focus the attention to all the aspects that make SOCMINT not only a networks analysis discipline, but also a real rip-off instrument for targeting and understanding relevant information within them.
The peculiarity of risks related to the manifestation that took place the 1st of May in Milan has been monitored through a systematic press review and social media analysis, that is Open Source Intelligence and Social Media Intelligence.
The primary aim of the research was to investigate what kind of relevant information could be extracted by analysing networks, how those results could be used and to which extent they could be generalized to address other similar events. It is important to mention that the analysis was done being completely aware that Social Media Intelligence is not, and cannot be considered, as a per-se instrument but that it has to be brought within the wider intelligence cycle as a source of information otherwise inaccessible.
However, this research aims at testing this assumption by considering the possibility to use the gathered information for the evaluation, without any other source, of specific aspects, such as for example events or users that can have links with the population taken into account by the analysis.
Concetti ed attività come ordine e sicurezza pubblica e intelligence sono sulla bocca di tutti e nelle colonne di tutti i giornali. Si parla anche frequentemente del lavoro dei servizi di intelligence, costantemente all’opera per la valutazione dei rischi legati al contesto attuale, visto anche il panorama internazionale sempre più complesso, spesso chiamati in causa per questioni legate al terrorismo internazionale e ai processi di radicalizzazione.
Il tentativo di utilizzare nuovi metodi per supportare l’ordine e la sicurezza pubblica sulla base di informazioni rilevanti è stato analizzato per contribuire alla formalizzazione della Digital Humint esaminando diversi aspetti: da un lato, la ricerca intende fornire una panoramica circa la percezione di sicurezza e di insicurezza, introducendo come discriminante per la sua rilevazione il concetto di fiducia, prendendo in considerazione alcuni degli strumenti e delle teorie legate alla gestione dell’ordine pubblico.
Risulta però parimenti necessario focalizzare l’attenzione su tutti gli aspetti che fanno della SOCMINT non unicamente un’analisi delle reti, ma un vero e proprio strumento per la comprensione e l’individuazione di informazioni rilevanti in esse contenute.
Il delinearsi delle peculiarità e dei rischi della manifestazione del primo maggio 2015 a Milano sono stati seguiti attraverso una sistematica attività di rassegna stampa e di monitoraggio dei social network, ovvero di un’attività di Open Source Intelligence e di Social Media Intelligence.
L’obiettivo di tale analisi è stato primariamente quello di comprendere quale tipologia di informazioni aggiuntive potessero essere estratte tramite l’analisi delle reti, come potessero essere utilizzati i risultati ottenuti e quale grado di generalizzazione potesse essere applicato nei confronti di eventi correlati. È fondamentale sin da subito precisare che tale analisi si sia svolta nella piena consapevolezza che la Social Media Intelligence non sia, e non possa essere considerata, come uno strumento a sé stante ma debba essere ricompresa in quello che viene definito il circolo di intelligence e che quindi possa unicamente intervenire nel mettere a disposizione un bagaglio informativo altrimenti inaccessibile.
La presente ricerca vuole tuttavia anche testare tale assunto considerando la possibilità di utilizzo delle informazioni raccolte per la valutazione, in assenza di qualsiasi altra fonte, di aspetti specifici, quali ad esempio eventi o soggetti che possano avere legami con la popolazione presa in oggetto dall’analisi stessa.

Keywords

SOCMINT, Social Media Intelligence, Information, Social Network, Intelligence, Facebook, Analysis.

Simone Ferrari, L’arte dell’Intelligence per anticipare le mosse della ’ndrangheta

Legislator has tried to address the new “entrepreneurial” nature and the grown power structure of mafia organizations, which are by now reaching their enrichment goal not only with criminal acts, but also by laundering money in licit or para-licit activities and influencing political system interfering with citizens’ freedom of vote. Art. 416 bis of italian penal code is an example of this awareness.
The need of countering more effectively the double phenomenon of laundering and reuse of money coming from criminal acts, has recently become one of the States’ priory, following the consciousness of its tight connections with organized crime and its serious repercussions on market organization and on the economy. The penal code, from this perspective, includes laundering crime, the use of money and goods coming from illicit activities.
Intelligence, from its viewpoint, has improved its penetration in terms of acquiring information in the Calabrian regional context and it has highlighted the subversive potential of the phenomenon, which represents on of the major threats for the national security. Likewise, from one side, the increase of tactical analyses that traced networks, power dynamics and conflicting tensions has been registered, form the other side, provisional studies, on a strategic level, have underlined possible ‘ndrangheta evolutions.
Given that today challenges are not won by the strongest, but by those who can know them and consequently adjust their behaviours, State’s authorities are provided with data to contrast organized crime: what is nowadays important is to link and coordinate them in an effective way and to promptly intervene, anticipating mafia’s moves. For these reasons, the intelligence, which has the capability to collect, integrate and use essential information, can be a winning tool to counter organized crime.
In Calabria the strongest criminal aggregation factor is given by parental links, which constitute the first cell on which the mafia organization is built: aiming at studying in depth the phenomenon cell, that is the family, genealogy is required.
However, it is not excluded that the new members of ‘ndrangheta use social media: from an intelligence perspective, the more our lives are connected to the net, the more our real and virtual identities are blended and relevant information are shared and thus traceable to elaborate broader analyses. The Social Media Intelligence, or Socmint, is the newest component of the intelligence cycle that focuses on gathering and analysing information that are produced and exchanged via social media.
Only and analysis freed from political, media and economical influences can prevent unfounded fears and useless expenses: independent intelligence from University is able to provide credible evaluations on the effective impact of Islamic, chemical, bacteriological and cyber terrorism. A bridge between intelligence and university is today necessary given the challenges posed by fight of terrorism and organized crime and the fact that Intelligence resources could not be enough to produce the needed knowledge to effectively counter new threats to human security. Universities and the research domain are always more security stakeholders.
Il Legislatore si è nel tempo sforzato di tipicizzare il nuovo volto «imprenditoriale» e l’accresciuta struttura di potere delle organizzazioni mafiose, le quali tendono ormai all’obiettivo dell’arricchimento non soltanto mediante la realizzazione di atti strettamente delittuosi, ma anche attraverso il reimpiego del denaro sporco in attività economico-produttive lecite o paralecite e l’influenza che riescono ad esercitare sul sistema politico, sino ad interferire sulla libertà di voto dei cittadini. L’art. 416 bis del Codice penale è un esempio di questa consapevolezza.
L’esigenza di fronteggiare più efficacemente il duplice fenomeno del riciclaggio e del reimpiego del denaro sporco, e cioè di provenienza delittuosa, è diventata di recente una delle priorità degli ordinamenti statuali, a seguito della definitiva presa di coscienza delle sue strettissime connessioni con la criminalità organizzata e delle sue gravissime ripercussioni sull’organizzazione del mercato e sul libero sviluppo dell’economia. Il Codice penale prevede, in quest’ottica, i reati di riciclaggio, di impiego di denaro, beni o utilità di provenienza illecita e di autoriciclaggio.
L’Intelligence, dal canto suo, ha affinato la penetrazione informativa nel contesto regionale calabrese e ha individuato la portata eversiva del fenomeno, che rappresenta una delle maggiori minacce alla sicurezza nazionale. Si è pure registrato il moltiplicarsi, da un lato, di analisi tattiche che hanno tracciato gli organigrammi, le dinamiche di potere e le tensioni conflittuali e, d’altro lato, di studi previsionali che, sul piano strategico, hanno evidenziato le possibili evoluzioni della ’ndrangheta.
Premesso che le sfide del nostro tempo non vengono vinte dal più forte, ma da chi per primo riesce a conoscerle e ad adeguarsi ai cambiamenti, i dati per contrastare la criminalità organizzata sono a disposizione degli organi dello Stato: ciò che diventa oggi indispensabile è legarli, coordinarli in modo efficace e intervenire con tempestività, anticipando le mosse delle consorterie mafiose, che operano ad ampio raggio, superando confini e legislazioni nazionali. Proprio per questo, l’Intelligence – per la capacità di raccogliere, integrare e utilizzare le informazioni essenziali – può costituire uno strumento vincente per la lotta alla malavita organizzata.
In Calabria il fattore di aggregazione criminale di maggiore intensità è dato dai vincoli parentali più stretti, che costituiscono di fatto la prima cellula a partire dalla quale si articola l’organizzazione mafiosa: volendo studiare in profondità la cellula del fenomeno, la famiglia, occorre procedere in modo scientifico, avvalendosi della genealogia.
Né va esclusa l’ipotesi che i nuovi ’ndranghetisti utilizzino i social media: da una prospettiva legata all’Intelligence, più le nostre vite si collegano alla rete, più le nostre identità reali e virtuali si fondono, più informazioni rilevanti vengono condivise e sono rintracciabili per elaborare analisi che siano le più complete possibili. La Social Media Intelligence, o Socmint, è la più recente componente del ciclo di Intelligence che si concentra sulla raccolta e sull’analisi delle informazioni che vengono prodotte e scambiate attraverso i social media.
Solo l’analisi libera da condizionamenti politici, mediatici ed economici può peraltro risparmiare paure infondate e spese senza senso: l’Intelligence indipendente dell’Università è in grado di offrire valutazioni credibili sull’impatto effettivo e sull’effettiva letalità del terrorismo islamico, chimico, batteriologico ed informatico. Il ponte fra Intelligence e Università è oggi necessario, date le sfide della lotta al terrorismo e alla criminalità organizzata: e le risorse dell’Intelligence potrebbero non essere sufficienti a produrre la conoscenza necessaria a combattere con efficacia le nuove minacce alla sicurezza umana. Quest’ultima fa sistema: le Università e il mondo della ricerca sono sempre più azionisti della sicurezza.

Laris Gaiser, Economic intelligence for a new world order

In a historical period characterized by the economic hyper-competition and the globalization process in which information is becoming increasingly important, the States are transforming their functions. They become Strategic States whose purpose is to promote their own economic power through the use of economic intelligence. The economic intelligence is the discipline studying information cycle needed by companies and States to make the right development decisions with the aim of fine-tuning their cognitive and decision-making capacities in the complex context of global competition. Because of that it ensures the prosperity and this in turn guarantees the state to influence skills internationally.
At the global level in recent decades we have witnessed the collapse of the system of governance established after World War II in Bretton Woods. The armed war has been largely replaced by the economic one and relations between international actors are increasingly based on economic assumptions. Different degrees of economic cooperation in different regions of the planet support the formation of a differentiated multipolarity, but at the same time also favor the use of economic intelligence. It becomes the States’ method of well-being and power maximization as well as the lowest common denominator of their relationships. For this reason, the economic intelligence could become the basis on which to build the new world order without passing once again through an armed conflict of devastating proportions.
In un periodo storico caratterizzato dall’ipercompetizione economica e dal processo della globalizzazione in cui il bene informazione diviene sempre più importante, lo Stato vede trasformate le proprie funzioni. Esso diviene uno Stato strategico il cui scopo è quello di favorire il proprio tessuto economico attraverso l’uso dell’intelligence economica. L’intelligence economica, ovvero la disciplina che, studiando il ciclo dell’informazione necessario alle imprese e agli Stati per effettuare scelte corrette di sviluppo, si prefigge di affinare le abilità cognitive e decisionali applicate alle complessità del contesto competitivo globale, garantisce benessere economico e questo a sua volta garantisce allo Stato capacità di influenza a livello internazionale.
A livello globale negli ultimi decenni si è assistito al crollo del sistema di governance definito in seguito alla seconda guerra mondiale a Bretton Woods. La guerra armata è stata in buona parte sostituita da quella economica e le relazioni tra soggetti internazionali si basano sempre più su postulati economici. Differenti gradi di collaborazione economica in diverse regioni del pianeta favoriscono il formarsi di una multipolarità differenziata, ma al contempo sostengono anche l’utilizzo dell’intelligence economica. Essa diventa così il metodo di massimizzazione del benessere e del potere degli Stati oltre che il minimo comun denominatore dei loro rapporti. Per tale ragione l’intelligence economica potrebbe divenire la base sulla quale costruire il nuovo ordine mondiale senza passare ancora una volta attraverso un conflitto armato di proporzioni devastanti.

Keywords

Geopolicy – Geoeconomy – Economic intelligence – Differentiated multipolarity – Governance

FOCUS: ASPETTI LEGALI

Giuseppe Carlino, Dalla normativa penale antiterrorismo alcune deduzioni democratico-costituzionali

In this article we observe the Islamic terrorism phenomenon through the lens of political conflict and therefore through the ones of jurisprudential conflict. We assume there is continuity between the first and the second ones: that depicts a perfect scenario for the juridical analysis in the center of the text. This analysis, regarding the latest criminal law on counterterrorism, shows worrying authoritarian aspects, a pre-modern and unconstitutional involution. These laws are on the one hand politically legitimated by the horrified execration of the islamic-fundamentalist enemy; on the other hand, they are juridically based on the universal, undisputed compulsoriness of ONU resolutions, which commit states to introduce these rules. The continuous link between the two aspects – the political and the juridical one – goes beyond the present moment and comes on the one hand to the political criminality role in the modern criminal culture, and to the practical jurisprudence that interested this criminality on the other hand, specifically during the XX century. Italy has a long tradition: as the last meaning, regarding the so known “years of lead”; as the previous meaning, regarding Francesco Carrara, founding father of the liberal criminal culture in Europe. Facing some, nevertheless worrying revival, there are many news: they are specific of the war on the Islamic Caliphate. The struggle against the foreign fighters carries laws to a repressive autism, condemned to the defeat since the theoretical premises. However, only if we put the phenomenon in a political perspective, we come to this conclusion: to this one we come up and from this one, circularly, we have begun. The reason of this choice was not a cultural leisure but, on the contrary, the prime interest to preserve prosecuted fundamental rights as well as the judge impartiality, the columns of European juridical tradition. In an attempt to offer an overall perspective, some hints go to military science and international law: where to put the terroristic attack within military science and how to consider the Islamic State, as regarding to the “state” designation, as regarding to the people self-determination principle.
Nel presente articolo s’intende leggere il fenomeno del terrorismo islamico con le lenti del conflitto politico e, dunque, con quelle del conflitto giuridico. La continuità che, infatti, si assume tra le prime e le seconde individua uno scenario perfettamente calzante su cui proiettare l’analisi normativa condotta nel corpo centrale del testo: l’esame della recente legislazione penale antiterrorismo mostra preoccupanti profili autoritari, di involuzione in senso premoderno e anticostituzionale. La legittimazione di tali norme si fonda, da un canto, politicamente, sull’esecrazione orrifica del nemico islamico-fondamentalista; dall’altro, giuridicamente, sull’universale, indiscussa cogenza delle risoluzioni ONU che impongono l’adozione della normativa in questione. Il continuo intrecciarsi di questi due piani – quello politico e quello giuridico – si espande dalla temperie specifica che oggi attraversiamo per giungere, da un lato, al ruolo assunto dalla criminalità politica nella cultura giuridico-penalistica moderna e, dall’altro, alle vicissitudini giurisprudenziali che tale criminalità ha vissuto, nel concreto dell’esperienza soprattutto novecentesca. L’Italia ha un importante bagaglio di esperienza: tanto, in quest’ultimo senso, con riguardo alla stagione degli anni di piombo, quanto, nel primo significato, con riguardo a Francesco Carrara, padre nobile della penalistica liberale europea. Dinanzi ad alcuni, pur sempre preoccupanti revival, molte sono le novità di questa stagione di guerra al Califfato: il contrasto ai foreign fighters induce la legislazione ad un autismo repressivo che è sin dalle premesse teoriche condannato a soccombere; tuttavia, solo una ri-politicizzazione del fenomeno consente l’affiorare di questa conclusione. A questa, dunque, si è pervenuti – e da questa, circolarmente, si sono prese le mosse – non per un vezzo culturale: interesse primario era, invero, quello di patrocinare la causa dei diritti fondamentali dell’imputato e il postulato di civiltà giuridica insito nella terzietà e imparzialità del giudice. Inevitabilmente, nel tentativo di offrire una prospettiva completa della lettura proposta, alcune considerazioni vanno ai temi della scienza bellica e del diritto internazionale: dove collocare – militarmente – l’atto terroristico e come considerare lo Stato islamico, e rispetto alla qualifica di “stato” e rispetto al principio di autodeterminazione dei popoli.

Simone Ferrari, Ancora sul caso Abu Omar: la Cassazione “conferma” la condanna a sei anni di reclusione per associazione con finalità di terrorismo internazionale

FOCUS: GRANDI EVENTI

Giovanni Pisapia, Planning Security Measures for Major Sport Events’ Transport System: a Practical Risk-Based Methodology

Recenti attacchi terroristici, ad esempio Madrid 2004, Londra 2005, Mombai 2006, Mosca 2010 e Bruxelles 2016, sottolineano i rischi del sistema del trasporto urbano. I terroristi scelgono spesse volte il trasporto pubblico di superficie per i loro attentati in quanto, con attacchi di questo tipo, si causano rilevanti ripercussioni economiche alla città aggredita, dato che questo settore è di vitale importanza per la vita dei cittadini in generale. Questa situazione è aggravata quando si svolgono grandi eventi sportivi, dal momento che questi aumentano il volume dei passeggeri nella città ospitante, in particolare vicino ai punti di interesse dell’evento, incrementano la presenza di persone di alto profilo alle manifestazioni, e forniscono un punto di richiamo per l’attenzione dei media, sia locali che internazionali. Il trasporto è un elemento importante per organizzare un grande evento sportivo. Il sistema deve essere allo stesso tempo efficiente, per consentire i movimenti in libertà dei vari clienti (ad esempio atleti e media) ed efficace, nel proteggere i passeggeri e le infrastrutture. All’interno di questo quadro, dato l’elevato rischio relativo alla sicurezza del sistema, c’è la necessità di mettere a punto elementi di sicurezza adeguati per la protezione dei passeggeri, del personale e delle infrastrutture. La sicurezza, intesa come difesa da atti criminali anche di natura terroristica, insieme alla sicurezza su lavoro (safety) e la gestione delle emergenze, costituiscono un continuum volto a mantenere il sistema dei trasporti, durante grandi eventi sportivi, funzionale, sicuro e protetto. In pratica, questi principi devono essere concretizzati in elementi pratici per creare un sistema atto a proteggere l’incolumità dei passeggeri e del personale e la protezione delle infrastrutture. Il sistema di trasporti durante grandi eventi sportivi è complesso, per le diverse tipologie (ad esempio aerei, treni, autobus, metropolitane) ed i vari operatori, sia pubblici che privati, utilizzati per movimentare clienti sul territorio. In questo contesto, questo articolo descrive un approccio pratico per pianificare misure di sicurezza adeguate per il sistema dei trasporti per grandi eventi sportivi, con un’analisi degli elementi principali del progetto e delle diverse fasi (dieci in tutto) per selezionare misure di sicurezza efficaci e proporzionali al rischio stimato. L’articolo vuole innanzitutto dare una panoramica dell’importanza e della complessità nell’istituire misure di sicurezza per i trasporti urbani di superficie, prima di concentrarsi sui requisiti utili, e la relativa metodologia, per pianificare misure di sicurezza adeguate. L’obiettivo è quello di descrivere gli elementi principali di una metodologia atta a mettere in sicurezza (intesa come difesa da atti criminali, anche di natura terroristica) il sistema dei trasporti durante un grande evento sportivo.Al fine di mantenere l’efficacia e l’accessibilità del trasporto per i vari clienti durante grandi eventi sportivi, adeguate misure di sicurezza devono, allo stesso tempo, non interferire con le operazioni di trasporto e fornire un ragionevole raggiungimento degli obiettivi di sicurezza in termini di deterrenza, rilevamento, e mitigazione del rischio.

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RESEARCH ARTICLES

Matteo Vergani, Ana-Maria Bliuc, The evolution of the ISIS’ language: a quantitative analysis
of the language of the first year of Dabiq magazine

In this article we investigate the evolution of ISIS by analysing the text contained in Dabiq, the official ISIS’ internet magazine in English. Specifically, we used a computerized text analysis pro-gram LIWC (Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count) to investigate the evolution of the language of the first 11 Issues of Dabiq. First, our analysis showed that affiliation seems to be an increasingly important psychological motive for the group. Secondly, ISIS has been increasingly using emotions, which are an important mobilizing factor in collective action literature, in a strategic manner. Thirdly, ISIS language presents an increasing concern with females. Last but not least, our analysis shows that ISIS has been increasingly using internet jargon (net-speak), which shows how the group tries to adapt itself to the internet environment and to connect with the identities of young individuals.

Claudio Bertolotti, Andrea Beccaro, Suicide Attacks: Strategy, from the Afghan War to Syraq
and Mediterranean region. A triple way to read the asymmetric threatsatteo Vergani

ANALYSES AND COMMENTARIES

Laris Gaiser, Intelligence economica: una proposta per l’Italia

Giovanni Giacalone, Islamic extremism from the Balkans emerges in Italy

FOCUS: WEB INTELLIGENCE

Marco Lombardi, Alessandro Burato, Marco Maiolino, Dalla SOCMINT alla Digital HumInt.
Ricomprendere l’uso dei Social nel ciclo di intelligence

Alessandro Burato, SOCial Media INTelligence: un nuovo spazio per la raccolta di informazioni rilevanti

Mauro Pastorello, How cyberspace is used by terrorist organization: possible threats to critical infrastructures? The most recent activities of cyber counterterrorism

L’obiettivo di questo articolo è di mettere in luce le numerose criticità e vulnerabilità che possono essere sfruttate da organizzazioni terroristiche, che accompagnano la crescente importanza dell’universo cibernetico nella vita sociale quotidiana di ogni individuo e nei processi di business di ogni azienda. Nella prima parte sarà messa in luce la convergenza dell’universo fisico con l’universo logico e verrà offerta un’analisi del cyberspace, utilizzando la Teoria di Clark e fornendo esempi di alcuni recenti casi di attacchi cibernetici. Il corpo centrale dell’articolo fornirà una breve descrizione della strategia italiana sulla sicurezza cibernetica e introdurrà il concetto di Infrastruttura Critica, evidenziando come, ad oggi, non si possa più parlare di infrastrutture meramente fisiche ma di Infrastrutture Critiche Informatizzate. Nella terza ed ultima parte, l’articolo fornirà un’analisi delle attività terroristiche condotte nel cyberspace, applicando la Teoria di Barry Collin ed il concetto di cyberterrorism, evidenziando in ultimo le strategie difensive ed offensive attuate da Stati Uniti e Gran Bretagna e offrendo spunti di riflessione sulla necessità di applicare in misura maggiore le tecniche di cultural intelligence.

The paper aims to highlight the critical issues and vulnerabilities that can be exploited by terrorist organizations, which grow with increasing importance of cyberspace in all business processes and on the daylife of each of us. In the first part will be highlighted the convergence of the physical world with the cyber world, where the phenomenon of cyberspace is being analyzed, according to Clark’s Theory and providing some examples of recent cases of cyber attacks. The second part is dealing with a brief description of the Italian strategy on cyber security and introduce the concept of Critical Information Infrastructure, which means that we can no longer speak of merely physical infrastructure. In the last part, the paper will provide an analysis of terrorist activities conducted in cyberspace, according to Barry Collin’s Theory and introducing the concept of cyberterrorism, highlighting the latest offensive and defensive strategies implemented by the United States and Britain and offering insights reflection on the need to apply techniques of cultural intelligence.

FOCUS: GRANDI EVENTI

Giovanni Pisapia, A Case Study Analysis of the Implementation of GIS Technology for Safety and Security Planning during Major Sport Events

Executive Summary

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